Weekly Market Note

Stocks set a record as buyers return to bonds

Week of October 5 – 9, 2026

The S&P 500, an index of 500 of the largest U.S. companies, set its first record close since August on Tuesday, at about 7,819. It finished the week up a little more than 1% and is up about 14% for the year. The bigger story of the week was in the bond market, where buyers returned after five straight weeks of losses.

U.S. stocks reached a record, then held their gains

Stocks started the week strong. Oil prices eased, more stocks joined the advance, and bond yields in Europe steadied, which carried the S&P 500 to its record on Tuesday. The middle of the week was less settled. Reports of possible U.S. strikes in the Middle East moved markets until they were denied, and investors again questioned how much the largest artificial intelligence companies are spending, including how much of that spending flows between the companies themselves. Then on Thursday, a report that OpenAI, the private company behind ChatGPT, had told investors its yearly revenue pace was nearing $50 billion pulled technology stocks lower. That figure was about $20 billion below an estimate that had circulated widely among investors. Stocks regained part of the drop on Friday as attention turned to the earnings season that begins next week.

The exception on Friday was the wireless carriers. After the close on Thursday, SpaceX, the rocket and satellite company that went public in June, agreed to buy airwaves, known as spectrum, for its Starlink Mobile service, a move investors read as a step toward competing with the major carriers. The deal still needs federal approval. On Friday, T-Mobile fell about 13%, AT&T about 10%, and Verizon about 9%.

Three sectors led the market this week. Consumer staples, the companies that make everyday goods such as food and household products, rose about 4%. Utilities rose 3.9% and energy rose 3.7%. Information technology, up about 30% this year, slipped 0.1%.

Buyers returned to the bond market

The 10-year Treasury yield, the interest rate on U.S. government debt that matures in ten years, closed at 5.31% on Monday, its highest close since 2002. Mortgage rates and other long-term borrowing costs tend to follow it. The auctions then drew strong demand. The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a yield of 5.3%, the highest at a 10-year auction since November 2000, and buyers were willing to accept a lower yield than traders had expected. A 30-year bond auction on Thursday sold at 5.62%, the highest since August 2000, and also drew steady demand. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index, a broad measure of high-quality U.S. bonds, rose 0.4% for its first weekly gain in six weeks.

Strong demand at these yields suggests that long-term investors see value above 5%. The Federal Reserve still matters most for where rates go next. The minutes of its September meeting, released Wednesday, confirmed that every voting member supported the quarter-point rate increase in September and that a majority expected another increase before year-end. Trading in interest-rate futures implies another increase by December. Based on the current data, long-term rates are unlikely to fall much while another increase is expected.

Oil and the cost of living

U.S. crude oil rose a little less than 1% for the week, to about $92 a barrel, and is up about 59% this year. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the channel off Iran that carries much of the Persian Gulf’s oil, slowed again after attacks on vessels. In the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Isaias forced producers to halt about 1.3 million barrels a day of output as of Thursday.

The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low in its early October reading, as people pointed to energy prices and borrowing costs. Delta Air Lines lowered its financial outlook this week, one example of companies absorbing higher fuel costs. Outside the U.S., stocks in Europe finished about flat amid worries over French government finances, and markets in Asia were mixed.

The week ahead

Wednesday brings the September consumer price index, the government’s main measure of inflation, along with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a summary of business conditions reported by its twelve regional banks. Thursday brings September retail sales and producer prices. Third-quarter earnings season, when companies report results for July through September, begins Tuesday with JPMorgan Chase and other large banks.

The week ended with stocks near a record and the first sign in more than a month that buyers are willing to buy bonds at these yields. Wednesday’s inflation report will show whether higher energy prices are spreading into the rest of the economy, and that answer could influence the Federal Reserve’s next decision.

LPL Research: “Weekly Market Performance, October 9, 2026.” Market data: Index, sector, bond, and commodity returns from LPL Research and Bloomberg as of 3:25 p.m. ET on October 9, 2026. Closing index levels from S&P Dow Jones Indices. Treasury yields and auction results from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Crude oil prices as reported by major financial news services, October 9, 2026. OpenAI revenue report: Financial Times, October 8, 2026, as reported by Reuters and TechCrunch. SpaceX spectrum agreement, October 8, 2026, and wireless carrier closing prices, October 9, 2026, as reported by CNBC and Yahoo Finance. Important: The opinions in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Company names are for illustration only and are not a recommendation. Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted. International investing involves special risks, including currency and political risk. For informational purposes only; not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.